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Watching the news last month we saw residents of Houston who were bewildered by the sudden and unexpected flooding. I was bemused at how some looked like scared rabbits and others looked like angry wet cats. My heart went out to them all.
Some stated that they had lived in the area over 35 years and never saw flooding like this. This is a bit of man's naivety and arrogance. We get complacent and self assured that we know the world, since we've lived on it forty or more years. But do we? It is foolish to look at weather over a relatively tiny sampling of time and assume we can predict the probability of a flood.
Flooding occurs regularly - wherever it is raining. Large rains can develop in weather fronts that may dump a sudden deluge. But nothing compares with a hurricane or even a stalled tropical storm. That is what happened with Allison. Houston will never forget. This kind of rain from a tropical storm was unprecedented - in recorded history. That means if we could look back longer than that, we might see a reoccurrence of this kind of rain 20 or 30 times, it just depends how long back you want to consider. That is part of the reason why this is called a 500-year flood event.
Generally people don't buy flood insurance for this type event. It is outside the scope of concern of mortgage lending institutions which mandate flood insurance for homes in a higher risk flood zone, usually referred to as a 100-year zone. It is statistically expected that a flood has a 1% chance of occurring in a year. That is accumulative, which means in 30 years, these homes stand a 30% chance of being inundated by floodwater. In that same 30 years the home stands a 5% statistical chance of fire. Sounds like there is a good reason to mandate flood insurance doesn't it?
Since the lines drawn for these flood zones are based upon relative elevation near waterways, they oversimplify the likelihood that a particular home may flood. It may not be prudent to rely on the zone determination alone. That is why I recommend people in a standard or 500-year flood zone still consider buying flood insurance if their property is no higher than the area surrounding them. Neighborhoods do flood, even when there is no creek or river anywhere nearby.
The drainage systems in most neighborhoods have difficulty evacuating much water without it accumulating to rise up to fill the streets. If homes are not much higher than curb level, it can easily reach foundations and flood property. This is why the NFIP says that between 25% and 30% of all flood insurance claims come from outside high-risk flood areas. Ask those residents of east Houston.
But is it a good idea to buy flood insurance if it so rarely occurs? It is if you cannot afford the repairs out of your own savings. The annual premium is often less than $200 in low risk zones. The trade off is there to consider each must weigh the decision carefully. Those sad Houstonians are trying to obtain insurance after the fact. This insurance is in the form of government secured loans or grants, or from donations from churches or others. There is no assurance that they will get all they need.
Victoria has not been affected by a hurricane since Carla nearly 40 years ago. In August of 1999, hurricane Brett struck Texas below Corpus Christi where there was very little construction, so the cost and impact was minimal. Had it hit just 60 miles north in Nueces County the damage could have been tremendous.
Hurricanes can dump between 14 to 24 inches of rain on our town. This rain will cause flooding where none previously has occurred. Now the question I have for you is, now that you know, what are you going to do about it?
Russell Janecka is a Certified Insurance Counselor. He is the owner of Janecka Insurance Agency in Victoria, and serves on the board of directors with Germania Insurance Companies. (361) 573-4475 e-mail: info@jiavic.com |